Problem 1: The monthly ambulatory visit shown in the Table below occurred in an outpatient clinic.

Problem 1: The monthly ambulatory visit shown in the Table below occurred in an outpatient clinic.

Problem 1: The monthly ambulatory visit shown in the Table below occurred in an outpatient clinic.

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Months Visits
July 2,160
August 2,186
September 2,246
October 2,251
November 2,243
December 2,162
  • Predict visits for January, using the naïve method.
  • Predict visits for January, using a three-period moving average.
  • Predict visits for January, using a four-period moving average.

Problem 2. Patient days in a hospital were recorded as shown in the Table below.

Month Patient Days
January 543
February 528
March 531
April 542
May 558
June 545
July 543
August 550
September 546
October 540
November 535
December 529
  • Predict naïve forecast of patient days for February and June.
  • Predict the patient days for January, using a four-period moving average.
  • Predict the patient days for January, using the six-period moving average.
  • Plot the actual data and the results of the four period and the six-period moving averages. Which is a better predictor?

Problem 3. Using the visit data in Problem 1, answer the following;

  • Prepare a forecast for January visits, using the simple exponential smoothing method with α = 0.3.
  • If α = 0.5, what is the predicted value for January visits?
  • If α = 0.0, what is the predicted value for January visits
  • If α = 1.0, what is the predicted value for January visits
  • Which alpha produces the best forecast?

Problem 4. An urgent care center experienced the average patient admissions shown in the Table below during the weeks from the first week of December through the second week of April.

Week Average Daily Admissions
1-Dec 11
2-Dec 14
3-Dec 17
4-Dec 15
1-Jan 12
2-Jan 11
3-Jan 9
4-Jan 9
1-Feb 12
2-Feb 8
3-Feb 13
4-Feb 11
1-Mar 15
2-Mar 17
3-Mar 14
4-Mar 19
5-Mar 13
1-Apr 17
2-Apr 13
  • Predict forecasts for the admissions from the first week of April through the fourth week of May, using linear regression.
  • Forecast admissions for the periods from the first week of December through the second week of April. Compare the forecast admissions to the actual admissions; What do you conclude?
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